CODY enables quantitatively spatiotemporal predictions on in vivo gut microbial variability induced by diet intervention

Microbial variations in the human gut are harbored in temporal and spatial heterogeneity, and quantitative prediction of spatiotemporal dynamic changes in the gut microbiota is imperative for development of tailored microbiome-directed therapeutics treatments, e.g. precision nutrition. Given the high-degree complexity of microbial variations, subject to the dynamic interactions among host, microbial, and environmental factors, identifying how microbiota colonize in the gut represents an important challenge. Here we present COmputing the DYnamics of microbiota (CODY), a multiscale framework that integrates species-level modeling of microbial dynamics and ecosystem-level interactions into a mathematical model that characterizes spatial-specific in vivo microbial residence in the colon as impacted by host physiology. The framework quantifies spatiotemporal resolution of microbial variations on species-level abundance profiles across site-specific colon regions and in feces, independent of a priori knowledge. We demonstrated the effectiveness of CODY using cross-sectional data from two longitudinal metagenomics studies—the microbiota development during early infancy and during short-term diet intervention of obese adults. For each cohort, CODY correctly predicts the microbial variations in response to diet intervention, as validated by available metagenomics and metabolomics data. Model simulations provide insight into the biogeographical heterogeneity among lumen, mucus, and feces, which provides insight into how host physical forces and spatial structure are shaping microbial structure and functionality

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Outcomes in Neurosurgical Patients Who Develop Venous Thromboembolism: A Review of the RIETE Registry

OBJECTIVES: Registro Informatizado de Enfermedad TromboEmb\uf3lica (RIETE) database was used to investigate whether neurosurgical patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE) were more likely to die of bleeding or VTE and the influence of anticoagulation on these outcomes. METHODS: Clinical characteristics, treatment details, and 3-month outcomes were assessed in those who developed VTE after neurosurgery. RESULTS: Of 40 663 patients enrolled, 392 (0.96%) had VTE in less than 60 days after neurosurgery. Most patients in the cohort (89%) received initial therapy with low-molecular-weight heparin, (33% received subtherapeutic doses). In the first week, 10 (2.6%) patients died (8 with pulmonary embolism [PE], no bleeding deaths; P = .005). After the first week, 20 (5.1%) patients died (2 with fatal bleeding, none from PE). Overall, this cohort was more likely to develop a fatal PE than a fatal bleed (8 vs 2 deaths, P = .058). CONCLUSIONS: Neurosurgical patients developing VTE were more likely to die from PE than from bleeding in the first week, despite anticoagulation

D-dimer levels and 90-day outcome in patients with acute pulmonary embolism with or without cancer

BACKGROUND: The prognostic value of D-dimer testing in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) has not been thoroughly studied. METHODS: We used the RIETE Registry data to assess the 90-day prognostic value of increased IL Test D-dimer levels at baseline in patients with PE, according to the presence or absence of cancer. RESULTS: As of May 2013, 3,283 patients with acute PE underwent D-dimer testing using IL Test D-dimer. Among 2,588 patients without cancer, those with D-dimer levels in the highest quartile had a higher rate of fatal PE (2.6% vs. 0.9%; p=0.002), fatal bleeding (1.1% vs. 0.3%; p=0.017) and all-cause death (9.1% vs. 4.4%; p<0.001) at 90 days compared with those with levels in the lowest quartiles. Among 695 patients with cancer, those with levels in the highest quartile had a similar rate of fatal PE or fatal bleeding but higher mortality (35% vs. 24%; p<0.01). On multivariate analysis, non-cancer patients with D-dimer levels in the highest quartile had an increased risk for fatal PE (odds ratio [OR]: 3.3; 95% CI: 1.6-6.6), fatal bleeding (OR: 4.3; 95% CI: 1.4-13.7) and all-cause death (OR: 2.1; 95% CI: 1.4-3.1) compared with patients with levels in the lowest quartiles. CONCLUSIONS: Non-cancer patients with acute PE and IL Test D-dimer levels in the highest quartile had an independently higher risk for fatal PE, fatal bleeding and all-cause death at 90 days than those with levels in the lowest quartiles. In patients with cancer, D-dimer levels failed to predict fatal PE or fatal bleeding